Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

May Corn closed 6 cents lower ($3.34 ¾), July 7 ¼ cents lower ($3.38 ¾) & Dec cents 10 ¼ cents lower ($3.47 ¼)

April Chgo Ethanol closed $0.091 cents a gallon lower ($0.820), May $0.085 lower ($0.836)

Weekly Ethanol Grind – 840 K bpd vs. 1.005 million week ago – Stocks – 25.7 million bbls vs. 24.1 million week ago

Weekly Corn Export Sales – old crop vs. 700 K – 1.200 M T. expected – new crop vs. 0-100 K T. expected

After yesterday’s performance the thought was the corn market may be in the process of stabilizing. So much for that idea after today’s trade. Ethanol prices continue to sewer lower prompting further ideas of corn backing up in this country. Sure, the bull spread was working but that was not enough to keep the flat price afloat. During the day some Brazilian ethanol processors announced they are thinking about declaring “force majeure” due to the low prices ethanol is bringing. That will work to offset some the concerns that are developing around the dryness that may be impacting their 2nd season corn crop. For the time being the US still is the most competitive source for corn. New crop corn fell to new contract lows stemming from yesterday’s USDA acreage report. Many don’t want to believe that number 996.990 million acres but for now it is what it is.

Interior corn basis levels are seeing river locations bumping up their bids as we do have some export interest. Processor bids remain on the defensive. Gulf values are firm from the modest export interest which may seem exaggerated due to the slow cash movement.

Recent contract lows are holding in old crop corn but just barely. $3.32 has been support for nearby corn for the past couple of years. After that we look at $3.25. New crop corn is moving lower with the greatest of ease. As of this writing the next suspected support level for Dec corn is something closer to $3.40.

Daily Support & Resistance – 4/02

July Corn – $3.35 – $3.45

Dec Corn – $3.45 – $3.54

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.