Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

May Soybeans closed 23 ¼ cents lower ($8.62 ¾), July 22 ¼ cents lower ($8.67 ¼) & Nov 14 cents lower ($8.63 ½)

May Soybean Meal closed $6.6 lower ($314.9), July $6.7 lower ($312.2) & Dec $0.8 lower ($307.6)

May Soybean Oil closed 96 pts lower ($26.05), July 95 pts lower ($26.41) & Dec 90 pts lower ($27.27)

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – old crop vs. 375-900 K T. expected – new crop vs. 0-100 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – old crop vs. 100-350 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – old crop vs. 8-40 K T. expected – new crop vs. 0-5 K T. expected

The soy complex registers a “technical train wreck” today. The trigger was renewed fears from the virus. Its hard to ignore when the administration suggests deaths from the virus could be anywhere from 100 K to 240 K. and that’s in the US alone.  Chinese soy and soymeal values collapsing overnight added to the day’s pessimism. Soybean oil had its own problems as bio-diesel demand is taking it on the chin as well as its food demand waning.

Soy processor basis levels run unchanged. River basis is showing some improvement from slow movement. The Gulf is holding firm. Soybean spreads were under definite pressure from spec related selling. Truck soybean meal offers run steady to slightly easier. Rail offers are falling out of bed. It seems end-users paid up in recent days and now they are nowhere to be found. Gulf soybean meal offers are starting to ease. The May/July meal steady was mostly steady while July forwards spreads are under considerable pressure.

The technical look at the soy complex after today’s action suggests the rally that started in mid-March is now over. Short term considerations may suggest a short term oversold. In my opinion any decent attempt to retrace today’s break is a selling opportunity.

Daily Support & Resistance – 4/02

July Soybeans – $8.55 – $8.75

July Soy Meal – $308.0 – $315.5

July Soy Oil – $26.00 – $26.80

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.