Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

May Corn closed 6 ¾ cents lower ($3.19 ¼), July 5 ½ cents lower ($3.26 ¾) & Dec 3 ¾ cents lower ($3.42 ¾)

May Chgo Ethanol closed unchanged ($0.947), June unchanged ($0.970)

Weekly Corn Export Sales – old crop vs. 600 K – 1.200 M T. expected – new crop vs. 150-350 K T. expected

Nothing has changed here. The ethanol sector remains on the skids. Livestock feeding is on skids with the multitude of processing plants either slowing down or closing. Stories are starting to appear that talk about chickens being culled as well as feeder pigs. Last but not least I’m hearing that Argentina is getting competitive with US origin for corn exports. Add this all together and it spells out a corn market that continues to get uglier and uglier.

The interior cash corn market runs steady to mixed. Cedar Rapids bumps their corn basis 2 cents while a couple of river locations decline 2 cents. The Gulf appears to be a shade easier at its midday posting. I’m told that with the problems in the ethanol and feed sectors that some cash corn is getting diverted to the Gulf. Corn spreads continue to push additional amounts of carry into the price structure.

The recent attempt to consolidate at our recent low end came unglued today. The lowest weekly close I have seen dating back many years (back to 2011) is $3.16 ½ (Sept 02,2016). Monthly charts will show a lower for August 2016 but month end that year occurred midweek. I wish I could tell you the corn market is oversold but it’s not, the 14-day RSI for May corn is 24, July Corn 24 and Dec corn 26. Shorter term inter-day technical data shows some room to bounce but that’s all it is, just some room to bounce.

Daily Support & Resistance – 4/16

July Corn – $3.23 – $3.32

Dec Corn – $3.40 – $3.47 

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