Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

May Soybeans closed 5 cents lower ($8.42), July 3 ¾ cents lower ($8.51 ¾) & Nov 5 ¾ cents lower ($8.59 ¾)

May Soybean Meal closed $4.7 higher ($292.2), July $3.5 higher ($296.6) & Dec $0.3 higher ($299.0)

May Soybean Oil closed 19 pts lower ($26.55), July 22 pts lower ($26.94) & Dec 24 pts lower ($27.80)

NOPA March Crush – 171.374 million bu. vs. 175.1 Million expected – Soybean Oil Stocks – 1.899 billion lbs vs. 2.067 billion lbs expected

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – old crop vs. 300-600 K T. expected – new crop vs. 75-300 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – old crop vs. 100-250 K T. expected new crop vs. 0-25 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – old crop vs. 8-35 K T. expected – new crop vs. 0-5 K T. expected

It looked like some end-users came out of the woodwork for some soybean meal coverage. NOPA crush data was supportive for the entire complex – more beans crushed vs. expectations, soybean oil stocks lower than expected despite the higher rate of crush and meal exports some of the best we’ve seen in quite some time. All of this worked to get the complex off of the day’s lows but in the end it just looks like some short covering due to some short term oversold conditions. Now if we could throw some better export data at the decent looking domestic data we might be able to get something going. Unfortunately with calls for Brazil to export 14 M T. of soybeans this month it doesn’t leave a lot of opportunities for the US soybean export market.

The interior soybean basis has a mixed look. River locations continue to flip-flop back and forth dictated by where soybeans are needed vs. where they are not needed. The processor basis runs steady to lower despite the 1 ½ days of bounce in Board Crush margins. It is interesting to note that some processor locations are touting a lower soybean basis but with higher offers for soybean meal. That’s called protecting your crush margins. The Gulf basis for soybeans continues to show a firm bias but I have to think that’s mostly from slow movement. Bids for Gulf meal also show some improvement. Bear spreads work in soybeans July forward while meal spreads are looking at their second day of improvement.

July soybeans are grinding their way down to the suspected $8.40 support level. July meal looks like a short covering rally and not much more than that as it honors recently established resistance with its break to new contract lows. July bean oil is trying to honor interim minor support but fell short of getting back up above the intermediate trendline that was violated the other day.

Daily Support & Resistance – 4/16

July Soybeans – $8.41 – $8.60

July Soy Meal – $293.0 – $299.0

July Soy Oil – $26.50 – $27.50

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.