Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

May Corn closed 8 cents lower ($3.14 ¼), July 7 cents lower ($3.22 ¼) & Dec 6 ½ cents lower ($3.37)

May Chgo Ethanol closed $0.042 cents a gallon lower ($0.930), June $0.042 cents lower ($0.951)

Weekly Corn Export Inspections – 683.8 K T. vs. 850 K – 1.300 M T. expected

Weekly Corn Export Inspections – 683.8 K T. vs. 850 K – 1.300 M T. expected

Down goes crude oil taking corn prices with it. The overall scenario around corn prices has not changed from what we were trading last week. Export demand is not enough to offset the declining domestic usage. Weekly corn export inspections were particularly disappointing this morning. Earlier today it was announced that another Major pork processing plant was being shut due to the virus. Just how long this and other previously announced plants remain closed is anyone’s guess. It will all come down to the rate of the spread of the virus. Ethanol prices stay depressed and that will continue as long as the majority of the country remains in the “stay at home” state. In recent weeks we’ve talked about US corn for export being some of the cheapest around. Today it was being suggested that the UK will enact import tariffs so that cheap US corn does not collapse the UK domestic corn market. All in all it has been difficult to find anything friendly to the corn market at least for the near term.

Interior corn basis levels have taken on a mixed look. Despite the lack of disappearance with the ethanol grind processor basis levels are running steady to a bit better. I have to think this is entirely on a lack of movement. Interior locations involved with export run mixed; some locations a bit easier while others steady to a bit better. The midday posting at the Gulf has it funning unchanged with levels reported late last week. The May/July spread widened out to levels not seen since last May. The old crop/new crop spread (July/Dec) sits just a few cents off of contract lows.

The grind lower continues yet charts are not showing any severe degree of oversold. The 14-day RSI for July corn sits at 24. Get that figure below 20 and we’ll talk. If crude oil can stabilize we may get an overnight bounce but that’s all it will amount to, just a bounce. The USDA reports that 7% of the intended corn crop has been planted. That’s right in line with trade expectations and 2% pts behind the 5-year average.

Daily Support & Resistance – 4/21

July Corn – $3.19 – $3.26

Dec Corn – $3.34 – $3.41 

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