Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

May Soybeans closed 6 cents lower ($8.26 ½), July 6 cents lower ($8.36 ¼) & Nov 5 ¼ cents lower ($8.45 ¾)

May Soybean Meal closed $2.6 lower ($285.6), July $2.3 lower ($290.8) & Dec $1.2 lower ($295.8)

May Soybean Oil closed 31 pts lower ($25.98), July 30 pts lower ($26.37) & Dec 29 pts lower ($27.20)

Weekly Soybean Export Inspections – 539.8 K T. vs. 300-550 K T. expected

Weekly soybean export inspections nothing to write home about. China buying US soybeans remains absent as they continue to focus on Brazilian origination. Soybean oil continues to grind lower from the weight of the energy markets as well as lower food usage. Soybean meal grinds lower from the disruptions in the livestock feeding sector. New crop soybean planting is just getting underway. The USDA says 2% of the intended crop has been planted vs. 1% year ago and 1% for the 5-year average.

For the most part the interior soybean basis runs unchanged with what was posted late last week. Processors show the best basis while some of the interior river locations are not far behind. We saw Board crush margins bounce noticeably last week. Some of that strength was easing today. Soybean spreads ran unchanged through the current crop year while old crop eased to the new crop. Since the 1st of April the July/Nov spread has lost about 20 cents. Offers to sell cash meal in the interior run steady to a touch softer. The Gulf offers run unchanged. The end-user interest we saw mid last week was nowhere to be found today. Meal spreads have renewed their easing trend.

This is not saying a lot but July soybeans are in line to see what the $8.29 contract low has to offer in terms of support. Not much positive can be said about July soybean meal pumping out new contract lows and closes. July soybean oil continues to grind lower from the sell signal that was registered one week ago today. I’m not sure what’s out there right now that will prompt a turn in the trend for the entire complex. The best that can be hoped for is an attempt at consolidation.

Daily Support & Resistance – 4/21

July Soybeans – $8.29 (?) – $8.41

July Soy Meal – ??? – $294.5

July Soy Oil – $26.00 – $26.85

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.