Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

May Corn closed 10 ¼ cents lower ($3.05 ½), July 9 ¾ cents lower ($3.13 ¼) & Dec 7 ¼ cents lower ($3.29 ½)

May Chgo Ethanol closed unchanged ($0.935), June $0.009 cents a gallon lower ($0.947)

Weekly Corn Export Inspections – 1.078 M T. – vs. 800 K – 1.100 M T. expected

Favorable news items for the corn market were few and far between on Monday. Good weather for planting, lower energy markets, Ukraine not limiting corn exports, better weather forecasted for the Brazilian 2nd season corn crop and a potential hit to US feed usage all worked together for double digit losses in old crop corn. For what it is worth weekly corn export inspections were deemed solid but not enough to overcome the bearishness elsewhere.

The interior cash corn market saw mixed readings today. The processor basis ran steady to easier. River locations saw some locations a bit easier while others were a bit better. The midday posting at the Gulf was unchanged from levels we saw in the latter half of last week. Corn spreads showed a definite bearish bias led by the May contract. 1st Notice Day for May deliveries is this Thursday. I have to think this weighed on the May contract.

Last week May corn matched the 2016 low of $3.01. In the few days following flat price rallied 22 cents only to challenge that low by 4 ½ cents today. This type of price action does not give anyone any kind of reassurance that the corn market is done probing the downside. Weather forecasts going forward do not offer anything threatening to the idea this year’s corn crop will get planted in a timely manner.

This afternoon’s planting progress report is expected to show 22% of the intended acreage has been planted. Ideas ranged from 18% to 27%. The USDA reports that 27% of the intended acreage has been planted vs. the 5-year average of 20%

Daily Support & Resistance 4/28

July Corn $3.09 (?) – $3.20

Dec Corn $3.25 – $3.36

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.