Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

May Soybeans closed 3 ¼ cents lower ($8.29), July 3 cents lower ($8.36 ½) & Nov 1 ¼ cents lower ($8.40 ¼)

May Soybean Meal closed $2.4 lower ($285.3), July $1.1 lower ($291.5) & Dec $0.7 lower ($294.6)

May Soybean Oil closed 6 pts lower ($24.99), July 3 pts lower ($25.47) & Dec 4 pts lower ($26.36)

Weekly Soybean Export Inspections – 555.7 K T. vs. 300-600 K T. expected

It was a two-sided trade for the soybean complex on Monday. The day’s high came during the night while the day’s lows came relatively early in the day session. Prices then traded in a relatively tight range for the balance of the day. Most of the day’s news stemmed around timely planting and still aggressive selling from the Brazilian producer. It is my thought the trade does want to give up on the idea that there is more Chinese buying waiting in the wings. If they do any more buying on top of what was announced last week, 600.0 K T., I have to think it will favor the new crop.

Despite soft looking Board crush margins the processor continues to stand in. River bids continue to support a steady to higher bias. The midday posting at the Gulf eases noticeably from levels that were seen most of last week. Soybean spreads saw a fractional bearish bias all the way out to March of ’21. Offers to sell cash meal for both domestic and export run unchanged. Given the anticipation of a crush slowdown I thought we would see higher meal offers. The nearby meal spread had a noticeable bearish bias which I’m attributing to 1st Notice Day on Thursday. July forward meal spreads ran steady to fractionally easier.

Last week’s suggested upside reversal in July soybeans continues to be honored but just barely. I can’t imagine anyone recent longs will sit still for a close below $8.30. The same scenario is holding true for the July meal market. Closes below $289.0 will not be taken lightly. July bean oil comes within 7 pts of its mid-March contract low. Given what’s impacting the bean oil market (lower energy use and lower food use) I have to think the March contract lows will give way. Once that happens one has to go back to 14-16 years ago to find any support. I’m not sure we can rule out 24 cents a lb. soybean oil.

Soybean planting progress is expected to be at 8% of the intended acreage. Range of estimates ran from just 4% planted to 12% planted. The USDA reports that 8% of the intended soybean acreage has been planted vs. the 5-year average of 4%.

Daily Support & Resistance – 4/28

July Soybeans – $8.29 – $8.46

July Soy Meal – $289.0 – $296.0

July Soy Oil – $25.00 – $25.90

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.