Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

May Corn closed ¾ cent lower ($3.10 ¾), July 3 cents lower ($3.15 ½) & Dec 2 ¾ cents lower ($3.34)

May Chgo Ethanol closed unchanged ($1.014), June $0.015 cents higher ($1.010)

USDA announces 115.8 K T. of old crop corn sold to unknown

Weekly Corn Export Inspections – 1.217 M T. vs. 850 K – 1.100 M T. expected

USDA reports that 51% of the intended corn acres have been planted vs. 39% 5-year average. Expectations were to see 48% planted.

Flat price corn mounts another challenge of recent contract lows and so they manage to hold. Ideas that relations between the US and China are deteriorating weighs on potential future purchases. A relatively rapid pace of corn planting in the Midwest weighs on prices. Weekly export inspections were better than expected but its questionable if they are enough to offset lost feed and ethanol demand. One of the only positive items in the corn market is the southern areas of Brazil’s second season corn crop is in almost dire need of moisture.

The interior corn basis runs mixed on Monday. River locations run steady to a bit better while processors are mixed. The Gulf basis at midday is unchanged with Friday’s posting which appears to be a bit easier. July forward spreads ran a bit wider on the day.

Old crop corn charts show the flat price trying to hold but not much more than that. New crop corn shows similar price action. I get the idea the trade is biding its time to see if something new comes along before pressing prices lower. One week from today the USDA will update old crop supply demand as well as giving us a look at new crop supply demand. My opinion is that the old crop carryout will increase due to the ongoing problems with ethanol and the new crop carryout will have a “3” in front of it.

Daily Support & Resistance – 5/05

July Corn $3.10 – $3.20

Dec Corn $3.29 – $3.39

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