Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

May Soybeans closed 13 ¼ cents lower ($8.34), July 13 cents lower ($8.36 ½) & Nov 9 ¼ cents lower ($8.45 ¾)

May Soybean Meal closed $4.1 lower ($283.3), July $4.1 lower ($288.4) & Dec $2.8 lower ($294.2)

May Soybean Oil closed 34 pts lower ($25.80), July 35 pts lower ($26.15) & Dec 31 pts lower ($27.05)

Weekly Soybean Export Inspections – 318.1 K T. vs. 400-600 K T. expected

USDA reports that 23% of the intended soybean acres have been planted vs. 11% 5-year average. Expectations were to see 21% planted.

The idea that relations between China and the US are deteriorating weighs on prices. Some are actually speculating that the US will nullify the Phase One agreement. Weekly export inspections continue to disappoint. It’s hard to think the US will have a decent share of exports anytime soon given that Brazil has exported record amounts of soybeans during the month of April. A decent rate of planting new crop soybeans also weighs on prices.

The interior soybean basis appears to be steady to a shade easier. The gulf basis appears to be fully steady. Soybean spreads showed a widening bias out through the new crop. Interior offers to sell cash soybean meal are mostly steady as they cite small end-user interest. Export meal offers appear to be a bit easier. Meal spreads ran steady upfront with a widening bias going forward.

It remains my thought that fi and when July soybeans close below the $8.30-$8.29 level recent attempts to be long will be throwing in the towel. Today’s close in July meal below the $290.0-$289.0 level should have the recent attempts to be long conceding. I’m not sure what to do with July bean oil – it has the double bottom against the $25.00 level but it is balking at first level minor resistance.

Daily Support & Resistance – 5/05

July Soybeans – $8.29 (?) – $8.47

July Soy Meal – $286.0 – $293.0

July Bean Oil – $25.60 – $26.60

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.