Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

May Corn closed ½ cent lower ($3.18 ½), July ¾ cent lower ($3.18 ½) & Dec 1 cent lower ($3.34 ¾)

June Chgo Ethanol closed $0.025 cents per gallon higher ($1.115), July $0.008 cents higher ($1.111)

Weekly Corn Export Inspections – 1.334 M T. vs. 900 K – 1.200 M T. expected

The USDA reports that 67% of the intended corn acreage has been planted vs. 5-year average of 56% – trade expectations were to see 71% planted

The Sunday night session brought us higher corn prices as traders tried to assess the impact of the frost/freeze that occurred over the weekend. The day session brought us lower prices as the short term assessment of the frost/freeze event was deemed minimal. Adding to the sell-off is the idea the USDA will give us bearish looking data when it updates old crop supply-demand as well as the first look at the new crop supply-demand. Weekly export inspections were deemed as quite solid but not enough to offset the idea of bearish data coming from the USDA tomorrow.

Interior cash corn prices (basis) continues to show an underlying firm tone. Not much happens with the midday gulf posting. Producer selling remains minimal for now. Corn spreads showed a fractionally tightening bias. It will be interesting to see the producers’ reaction if the USDA does indeed give us bearish looking data.

We’ve seen some minor short covering in the past few days. Overall, however, the flat price has gone nowhere. If the current pace of planting is any indication of a successful new crop and the USDA confirms tomorrow we’ll have to expect a brand new wave of selling that could quite easily have corn prices with a “$2” in front of it.

Daily Support & Resistance – 5/12

July Corn $3.10 (?) – $3.25 ($3.31)

Dec Corn $3.25 (?) – $3.41 ($3.48)

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.