Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

May Soybeans closed 3 ½ cents higher ($8.52 ¼), July 4 ½ cents higher ($8.55) & Nov 3 cents higher ($8.58 ½)

May Soybean Meal closed $0.4 lower ($286.3), July $0.5 lower ($290.3) & Dec $0.2 lower ($296.2)

May Soybean Oil closed 4 pts lower ($26.19), July 5 pts lower ($26.49) & Dec 5 pts lower ($27.31)

Weekly Soybean Export Inspections – 496.5 K T. vs. 350-700 K T. expected

The USDA reports that 38% of the intended soybean acreage has been planted vs. the 5-year average of 23% – trade expectations were to see 42% planted

The word on the street is that China remains interested in purchasing additional amounts of US soybeans. Today’s story had amounts ranging from 4 cargoes to as many as 10 cargoes. Supposedly both Chinese state stock pilers and crushers are showing the interest. Tomorrow’s data from the USDA is expected to show a slight increase in the old crop soybean stocks while ideas vary widely as to ideas for the new crop projected carryout. The average guess for the new crop carryout is 430 million bu. yet the low guess is 299 and the high guess 695 million bu. (Personally I favor the low end).

Most interior soybean basis levels run unchanged. A couple of river locations do some flip-flopping but overall the tone of the interior soybean basis market is firm. The gulf edges higher from Friday’s posting. Soybean spreads are showing a tightening bias in response to the recent Chinese buying. Offers to sell cash meal in the interior and at the gulf are running unchanged with recent postings. End-users seem to be a bit gun-shy given what’s happening in the livestock sector (plant closings). Meal spreads showed a very slight widening bias.

Tomorrow it will come down to China vs. the USDA. If China has indeed become resolute in meeting its Phase One commitments it should offset any bearish looking data from the USDA.  Time will tell as it always does.

Daily Support & Resistance – 5/12

July Soybeans – $8.40 – $8.70

July Soy Meal – $286.0 – $296.0

July Bean Oil – $26.00 – $27.00

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.