Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

July Corn closed 1 ½ cents higher ($3.20 ¾), Sept 1 ¼ cents higher ($3.24 ¼) & Dec ¾ cent higher ($3.32 ¾)

June Chgo Ethanol closed $0.034 cents per gallon higher ($1.148), July $0.019 cents higher ($1.086)

Weekly Corn Export Inspections – 1.150 M T. vs. 800 K – 1.300 M T. expected

USDA reports 80% of the intended corn acreage has been planted vs. 71% 5-year average – expectations were to see 81%

It was another quiet day for the corn trade but with a firmer bias led by the old crop. July corn had just a 4 cent range and Dec just a 3 ¼ cent range. Strong energy prices (including ethanol) coupled with a decent export program was behind the upfront strength. There was some talk about the need to replant in central and eastern Illinois due to heavy rains over the weekend but as of this writing this topic did not have a lot of traction. Adding to some of the underlying strength is the fact the spec trade remains a sizeable net short which some will say is not the most advisable with the entire growing season in front of us.

Interior cash corn markets (basis) in the Midwest have taken on a mixed look – the Ohio River is 1 cent easier, Burns Harbor 3 cents better, Cedar Rapids 2 cents easier and Savanna, IL 4 cents better. The Gulf holds on to its recent strength while noting it is unchanged over the past 3 days.  Corn spreads gained fractionally month to month to month.

I think everyone will agree the corn market continues to be a trading range affair. The broader range is $3.10 to $3.30. The range within the range is $3.14 to $3.24. Violation of the tighter range will get you challenges of the broader range. If I had to have a bias for the near term I’ll favor the high side mostly because I feel the spec trade is just a bit too short with the majority of the growing season still ahead of us.

Daily Support & Resistance – 5/19

July Corn: $3.17 – $3.24

Dec Corn $3.29 – $3.36

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.