Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

July Soybeans closed 6 ½ cents higher ($8.45), August 7 cents higher ($8.47 ¾) & Nov 7 ¼ cents higher ($8.52 ¾)

July Soybean Meal closed $2.4 lower ($285.1), August $2.0 lower ($286.7) & Dec $0.7 lower ($292.3)

July Soybean Oil closed 74 pts higher ($27.32), August 75 pts higher ($27.51) & Dec 76 pts higher ($28.13)

Weekly Soybean Export Inspections – 352.1 K T. vs. 300-650 K T. expected

USDA reports 53% of the intended soybean acreage has been planted vs. 38% 5-year average – expectations were to see 56%

Soybean Oil carries the ball on Monday. Sharply higher palm oil, better promotion of bio-diesel overseas and sharply higher US energy prices all worked together to boost soybean oil prices to levels not seen since mid-April. The downside to the complex was the meal market as it continues to grind lower. July meal registered new contract lows along with new contract low closes. It remains my thought soybeans will struggle to sustain much on the upside as long as the meal market continues to be the dog.

The interior soybean market (basis) in the Midwest has a mixed look to it. The Ohio River is 2 cents easier, Seneca, Il is 9 cents lower, Savanna, IL 4 cents better and Davenport 2 cents easier. The Gulf eased 4 cents Friday afternoon and Monday’s midday update ran unchanged with the post. Soybean spreads showed a bearish bias all the way out to July ’21. Offers to sell cash meal run easier on the day whether its truck offers or rail offers. Needless to say meal spreads were under the gun for most of the day.

July soybean oil appears destined to test its spring high, $28.14. If bean oil really wants to rock and roll there’s a gap at $28.89 from early March. I have to think its influence on the price of soybeans will remain muted given the miserable performance in the meal market. For the time being I’ll call July soybeans a trading affair between $8.30 and $8.60.

Daily Support & Resistance – 5/19

July Soybeans – $8.35 – $8.55

July Soy Meal – $282.0 – $288.0

July Bean Oil – $26.75 – $27.90

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.