Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

July Corn closed 1 ¾ cents lower ($3.19 ½), Sept 1 ¼ cents lower ($3.24 ¼) & Dec ¼ cent lower ($3.34)

June Chgo Ethanol closed $0.052 cents per gallon lower ($1.125), July $0.013 cents lower ($1.081)

Weekly Ethanol Grind – 663 K bpd vs. 617 K bpd week ago – Stocks – 23.6 million bbls vs. 24.2 million week ago

Weekly Corn Export Sales – old crop vs. 500 K – 1.000 M T. expected – new crop vs. 200-400 K T. expected

It was a two-sided trade in the corn market today with most of it on the downside. I have to think it was the sharp rally in wheat that took corn off of the day’s low but overall it wasn’t much. The ethanol grind is improving while many will say not enough which may lead to further cuts in ethanol usage. Talk of replanting in parts of Illinois and points eat was just that, talk, as many just shrug their shoulders with this idea. Yesterday’s rumor that China may be looking at US origination did not get any traction today especially since yesterday’s rally failed to hold. Tomorrow is export sales day and we need it. Unfortunately the trade is not expecting to see market making sales.

The interior Midwest cash corn market (basis) is mostly steady with the exception of river locations. High water is creating some logistical problems as selected locations flip-flop back and forth where the impact is the greatest. The Gulf has a firm tone because of the high water problems upriver but it’s not running away from us. Nearby corn spreads ran noticeably weaker.

July corn has been trying to drift higher since late April. Overall its gone nowhere. Yesterday’s attempt to move higher pretty much fell flat on its face. As of this writing I’m not sure what’s out there to break out of the $3.10-$3.30 range. I’m not sure the Dec corn chart can trade much flatter. Since May 1st closes have ranged from $3.31 to $3.37.

Daily Support & Resistance – 5/21

July Corn: $3.15 – $3.24

Dec Corn $3.29 – $3.38

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