Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

July Soybeans closed 4 ¼ cents higher ($8.46 ¾), August 4 cents higher ($8.49 ¼) & Nov 3 ¾ cents higher ($8.54)

July Soybean Meal closed $0.9 higher ($285.5), August $0.8 higher ($287.3) & Dec $0.6 higher ($293.1)

July Soybean Oil closed 27 pts higher ($27.36), August 25 pts higher ($27.53) & Dec 26 pts higher ($28.15)

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – old crop vs. 500 K – 1.000 M T. expected – new crop vs. 300-600 K T.

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – old crop vs. 75-250 K T. expected – new crop vs. 0-50 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – old crop vs. 15-45 K T. expected – new crop vs. 0-50 K T. expected

Soybean oil once again carries the ball to keep the soybean market alive. Higher energy prices coupled with ideas of better bio-diesel demand were mostly responsible. Soybean meal managed a minor bounce off of yesterday’s round of new contract lows. A higher Brazilian real lent some minor support. The bottom line to the soybean market is China. Without them we will drift lower. Tomorrow is export sales day. Last week for the reporting period the USDA announced 570 K T. of old crop soybeans sold through its daily reporting system. Were there any additional sales that flew under the USDA’s reporting limit?

Most processors appear to be standing pat with their advertised basis levels. Lincoln, NE is 5 cents lower. High water issues has shifted demand to locations that are not as impacted. The “however” is that the midday posting for the Gulf was a bit easier. Soybean spreads ran fractionally firmer on the day. Offers to sell cash meal in the interior are mixed. Some locations cite some tightening in the ready supply. Not much change is being seen with meal for export. Meal spreads also some fractional tightening.

Since mid-late April July soybeans have traded in a 30 cent range, $8.30 to $8.60. The last four days of trade features a minor upflagging drift pretty much in the middle of the range. Despite yesterday’s downside reversal in soybean oil follow selling was nowhere to be seen today. July bean oil appears to be range bound between $25.00 and $28.00. Bean oil charts are suggesting a challenge of $28.00 represents a low risk selling opportunity (just my opinion). What can one say about soybean meal? One item on the meal charts that jump out at me is that yesterday’s new contract low involved one of the tightest daily trading ranges seen in quite some time. Experience sounds a warning that when a market is on an extreme and it goes quiet to be careful chasing that extreme.

Daily Support & Resistance – 5/21

July Soybeans – $8.35 – $8.55

July Soy Meal – $282.0 – $288.0

July Bean Oil – $26.75 – $27.90


The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.