Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

July Corn closed ¼ cent lower ($3.24), Sept unchanged ($3.28 ½) & Dec ¼ cent higher ($3.38 ¼)

June Chgo Ethanol closed unchanged ($1.160), July $0.001 cents lower ($1.147)

Weekly Ethanol Grind – 765 K bpd vs. 724 K bpd week ago – Stocks – 22.5 M bbls vs. 23.2 M bbls week ago

Weekly Corn Export Sales – old crop vs. 400-900 K T. expected – new crop vs. 50-300 K T. expected

Despite spending the majority of the day in minus territory late short covering brought prices back to unchanged to fractionally higher on the day. Support was realized on the latest ethanol grind data as well as the continued easing of the US dollar. The latest ethanol grind suggests a continued rebound in corn processing as well as a rebound in ethanol usage. It seems we have just enough export demand and an improving ethanol grind but just not quite enough to prompt the spec shorts to start running for cover. The spec has a big enough short position that if he would start to cover and additional 10-15 cents higher could be seen in relatively short order.

The interior Midwest corn basis has a mixed look on Wednesday. The Ohio River is down 9 cents, Burns Harbor up 2 cents, Seneca, IL down 2 cents and Savanna, IL up 1 cent. The gulf appears a bit easier at its midday posting. Corn spreads showed a fractionally easier bias to end the day. It should be noted that on Friday “Big Boy” index fund rolling starts where they move their passive longs forward. I’m thinking the smaller funds are already moving with their roll.

The range bound trading continues. July corn remains in a well-defined channel with a slight upwards bias. The last few days the corn market has seen early selling but lacking follow through. That should be viewed as slightly friendly to the near term price direction.

Daily Support & Resistance – 6/04

July Corn: $3.22 – $3.29

Dec Corn $3.36 – $3.43

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.