Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

July Chgo Wheat closed 11 ¾ cents higher ($5.23 ¾), Sept 11 ¾ cents higher ($5.27 ½) & Dec 10 ¾ cents higher ($5.36 ¾)

July KC Wheat closed 14 ½ cents higher ($4.72 ¼), Sept 14 ½ cents higher ($4.79 ¼) & Dec 13 ¾ cents higher ($4.90 ¾)

July Mpls Wheat closed 6 cents higher ($5.26 ¼), Sept 6 ¼ cents higher ($5.37 ½) & Dec 7 cents higher ($5.51 ¼)

Weekly Export Sales – 179.5 K T. old crop vs. 50-250 K T. expected – 437.3 K T. new crop vs. 100-600 K T. expected

Continued new crop supply concerns from the world’s major exporters coupled with the continued slide in the US Dollar pushes wheat prices to 3-4 week highs. In the past few weeks we’ve heard Russia, Ukraine, Europe and the US all talk about lower new crop wheat production ideas. It will be interesting to see if the USDA catches up with these ideas next Thursday, June 11th.

Advertised interior basis levels for SRW remain quiet. Not much happens with SRW at the gulf. Chgo spreads were firm along with the flat price. The Kansas basis for HRW is soft while the HRW basis from Oklahoma is firm. The export basis for HRW is firm as well. KC spreads ran steady to firm.

The other day I was thinking wheat prices would stay as a trading range affair ahead of next Thursday. It looks like that idea is going to get a severe test after today’s push higher. July Chgo wheat closing above $5.30 will suggest a test of $5.40. July KC has formidable looking resistance from $4.75 to $4.90. As strong as prices looked today I’ll maintain discipline and not chase today’s inter-day upside extreme. Hopefully we can get a short term inter-day extreme to the downside that I will look at.

Daily Support & Resistance – 6/05

July Chgo Wheat: $5.16 – $5.32  

July KC Wheat: $4.64 – $4.80

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