Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

July Corn closed 7 cents lower ($3.17 ¼), Sept 6 ½ cents lower ($3.20 ½) & Dec 5 ¾ cents lower ($3.28)

July Chgo Ethanol closed $0.139 cents a gallon lower ($1.135), August $0.059 lower ($1.105)

Weekly Corn Export Sales – 461.6 K T. old crop vs. 300-800 K T. expected – 77.0 K T. new crop vs. 100-300 K T. expected

It was another ugly day for the corn futures market. Personally I thought weekly export sales were no big deal. The idea of beneficial weather for the growing corn crop along with non-threatening forecasts weighs on the market. Corn spreads, old crop vs. new crop saw a heavy play. As the flat price was going down bull spreads were improving. Once the flat price stabilized and tried to recover some of the losses spreads started to widen back out. Just to give you an idea of the spread the July/Sept traded into a 1 ¾ cent carry then widened back out to a 3 ½ cent carry. The July/Dec spread traded into a 7 ¾ cent carry before widening back out to an 11 ¼ cent carry. All of this spread motion is tied to 1st Notice Day coming up next Tuesday, the 30th. Yesterday’s rumor of China looking at US corn remains just that, a rumor. The Gulf basis for stays firm prompted by slow producer sales as well as the Chinese rumor.

It doesn’t take rocket science to say the corn charts are pretty ugly looking especially when Dec corn pumps out new contract lows along with new contract low closes. If I have anything positive to say about the corn market it’s that we may have seen an interim low at least util we see what the USDA has to say on Tuesday. The average guess for the Acreage report is 95.173 million acres which is down 1.817 million from the March report while increasing 5.473 million vs. one year ago. The average guess for the Quarterly Stocks report is 4.955 billion bu. vs. 5.202 billion bu. one year ago.

Daily Support & Resistance – 6/26

July Corn: $3.12 – $3.21  

Dec Corn $3.23- $3.32  

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.