Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

July Soybeans closed 1 ½ cents lower ($8.69 ¼), August 1 cent lower ($8.66 ½) & Nov 1 ¾ cents lower ($8.68 ¼)

July Soybean Meal closed $1.2 lower ($285.5), August $0.8 lower ($288.0) & Dec $0.2 lower ($293.2)

July Soybean Oil closed 11 pts lower ($27.54), August 11 pts lower ($27.74) & Dec 8 pts lower ($28.42)

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – 601.8 K T. old crop vs. 400-900 K T. expected – 560.8 K T. new crop vs. 400 K – 1.000 M T. expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – 70.2 K T. old crop vs. 100-250 K T. expected – 12.0 K T. new crop vs. 0-50 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – 20.5 K T. old crop vs. 5-30 K T. expected – no new crop vs. 0-5 K T. expected

Despite the complex finishing lower it was not a bad performance where we closed vs. the day’s lows. It’s my thought the trade will not give up on China eventually making a market here. New crop soybean export sales have slowed dramatically vs. what we saw for the previous two weeks. Current weather conditions along with the near term forecasts remain beneficial for the fledgling crop. Unlike corn when its prime time is during the first half of July for pollination soybean’s prime time is August for pod filling. Guesstimates for Tuesday’s Acreage report have planted acres at 84.773 million an increase of 1.263 million and increase over last year by 8.673 million. The Quarterly Stocks report is estimated to be 1.392 billion bu. vs. 1.783 billion one year ago.

Cash soybean markets stay firm (including the Gulf) as producer selling stays light. It seems the producer is just as anxious to see that Chinese demand materialize just like the futures’ traders. Soybean spreads saw only fractional changes up front with a bullish slant to the deferred.

Soybean charts built technical support from last half April to early June. We have yet to challenge these levels. The wide band of support for old crop begins in the mid-$8.50’s and runs down to the mid-low $8.30’s. This band of support for the new crop (Nov) begins in the mid-$8.50’s and runs down to the $8.40 level. Old crop soybean meal continues to test suspected support in the mid to low $280’s and so far manages to hold but so far that is all it is doing, just holding with little sign of rejecting these levels. Old crop soybean oil continues to correct its recent rally. It looks like the $27.00 level could become make it or break it support.

Daily Support & Resistance – 6/26

July Soybeans: $8.60 – $8.78

July Soy Meal: $283.0 – $288.0

July Soy Oil: $27.100 – $27.95

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.