Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

July Corn closed 9 ¼ cents higher ($3.26 ¼), Sept 9 ½ cents higher ($3.28 ¾) & Dec 9 ½ cents higher ($3.34 ¾)

July Chgo Ethanol closed $0.036 cents a gallon higher ($1.200), August $0.045 higher ($1.155)

Weekly Corn Export Inspections – 1.234 M T. vs. 1.000-1.300 M T. expected

The USDA is rating the US corn crop at 73% GE (+1%) vs. 73% expected vs. 56% year ago – Silking – 4% vs. 7% 5-year average

Big time short covering in the grain market that has the greatest concentration of speculative shorts – yes, we’re talking about the corn market. I believe we had a number of factors at work here to prompt the short covering – month end, quarter end, 1st Notice Day, the Quarterly Stocks report (4.955 billion bu. expected) and the Acreage report (95.173 million acres expected) all coming at us tomorrow, June 30th. Chinese rumors were also present. It seems that whenever the corn market has a stout rally China rumors pop up.  Recent weather and the next couple of days look beneficial for a good portion of the Corn Belt. Later this week and into next week there are hints that a much drier pattern may be developing. Now is the time of year, late June and the first half of July, corn traders/producers will be eyeballing every forecast as they monitor the conditions of the crop during the expected pollination period.

Interior Midwestern cash corn markets continue to show a steady to higher bias as new producer selling remains considerably slow. The Gulf basis too remains firm. Corn spreads showed a bullish bias which I believe reflects the day’s short covering. As much as I would like to think that US corn exports are going to stay strong we have to be cognizant of Brazil’s 2nd season corn crop just around the corner.

Today’s sharp rally out of the hole indeed looks impressive. Technical resistance that was established with last week’s break has yet to challenged. Resistance for Sept corn comes into play in the mid-low $3.30’s and for Dec corn in the high $3.30’s, the low $3.40’s. Now we just wait and see what the USDA has to say as well as how forecasts play out.

Daily Support & Resistance – 6/30

Sept Corn: $3.18 – $3.36  

Dec Corn $3.22- $3.42  

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