Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

July Soybeans closed 1 ½ cents higher ($8.66 ½), August 1 ½ cents higher ($8.61 ½) & Nov ¼ cent higher ($8.61 ½)

July Soybean Meal closed $1.6 lower ($280.5), August $1.7 lower ($283.6) & Dec $2.0 lower ($288.6)

July Soybean Oil closed 42 pts higher ($27.62), August 37 pts higher ($27.78) & Dec 38 pts higher ($28.46)

Weekly Soybean Export Inspections – 324.5 K T. vs. 275-550 K T. expected

The USDA is rating the US soybean crop at 71% GE (+1%) vs. 70% expected vs. 54% year ago – Emerged – 95% vs. 91% 5-year average – Blooming – 14% vs. 11% 5-year average

The soybean market was the weak sister of the Ag Market on Monday. Here’s the only Ag market that has the speculator with net long positions. With that said I think we saw a fair amount of inter-market spread realignment – buying grains while selling oilseeds. Tomorrow will be a big day for the soybean market as we are looking at month end, quarter end, 1st Notice Day, Quarterly Stocks (1.392 billion bu. expected and the Acreage report (84.773 million acres expected). Weather considerations here did not get the play the corn market received as the prime time for soybean development is not until late July, most of August when pod setting/filling occurs. I’m not sure where the strength in the soybean oil market came from other than the stronger crude oil as most competing veg oils were lower on the day. The meal market continues to be the “dog” of the complex and that will continue to hamper the soybean market’s efforts to rally.

Slow producer selling continues to support the interior Midwestern soybean basis. The Gulf basis continues to stand in but it is not setting the world on fire. Recent strength in the nearby spreads is mostly about the idea of no soybean deliveries against the July contract.

Soybean charts continue to show an easing pattern that started last week. Old crop soybeans have not really tested the support that was established from last half April to early June. That starts to come into play in the low $8.50’s for August and the mid to low $8.50’s for November. There is a not a lot to say about the meal market other than new contract lows and closes pretty much says it all. Old crop soybean oil is trying to honor the $27.00 level while new crop is trying the same with the $28.00 level.

Daily Support & Resistance – 6/30

Aug Soybeans: $8.51 – $8.73

Nov Soybeans: $8.51 – $8.75

Dec Soy Meal: ??? – $294.0

Dec Soy Oil: $27.90 – $29.10

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.