Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

July Corn closed 3 ¼ cents higher ($3.48 ¼), Sept 2 ¾ cents higher ($3.46 ¼) & Dec 1 ¾ cents higher ($3.54 ¼)

August Chgo Ethanol closed $0.015 cents a gallon higher ($1.360), Sept $0.015 cents higher ($1.350)

CONAB – Brazilian Corn Production – 100.559 M T. vs. 100.993 (June) vs. 101.0 K T. (USDA) vs. 101.0 K T. year ago

Weekly Ethanol Grind – Production – 914 K bpd vs. 900 K week ago – Stocks – 20.6 million bbls vs. 20.2 million week ago

Weekly Corn Export Sales – old crop vs. 300-600 K T. – new crop vs. 150-500 K T. expected

Corn futures were lower in the Tuesday night session due to near term forecasts appearing not as threatening compared to just a couple of days ago. Prices were able to get into the plus column during the day session pulled up by a sharply higher wheat market. Weather forecasts have moisture moving in from the west over the next day or two and it is expected to move east. Specific amounts and locations still remain a bit vague. Forecasts for next week have heat returning but once again the call for  moisture remains a bit vague as to amounts and specific locations.

Interior cash corn markets (basis) have a mixed look. Interior Illinois River locations are pretty much out of the market due to lock and dam closures. This has the Gulf market improving. Mid-Miss locations have stepped up their bidding for corn in an effort to satisfy the Gulf. Corn spreads are firm for old crop, not so much for new crop.

The December corn chart has taken on a downflagging appearance. The best looking support is down in the mid-low $3.40’s. The halfway back level for the recent rally is down around $3.42. Weather considerations will continue to hold sway over this market. It is my opinion that Friday’s USDA report has already been factored into the price structure – the average guesstimate for corn production is 15.039 billion bu. and projected carryout 2.707 billion bu.

Daily Support & Resistance – 7/09

Sept Corn: $3.41 – $3.51  

Dec Corn $3.48 – $3.60  

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.