Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

July Soybeans closed ½ cent lower ($8.94 ¾), August 4 ¼ cents lower ($8.92 ½) & Nov 5 ¼ cents lower ($8.97 ¼)

July Soybean Meal closed $1.7 lower ($291.6), August $1.7 lower ($293.8) & Dec $1.3 lower ($301.8)

July Soybean Oil closed 30 pts lower ($28.46), August 32 pts lower ($28.55) & Dec 35 pts lower ($29.21)

CONAB – Brazilian Soybean Production – 120.883 M T. vs. 120.424 (June) vs. 124.0 (USDA) vs. 119.0 year ago

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – old crop vs. 300-800 K T. expected – new crop vs. 400 K – 1.000 M T. expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – old crop vs. 75-250 K T. expected – new crop vs. 0-50 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – old crop vs. 5-25 K T. expected – new crop vs. 0-5 K T. expected

The soy complex couldn’t get much going today as both soybeans and soybean products went into a correctional phase. Weather is still the driving short term focus. Forecasts for the near term has moisture moving in but specifics as to amounts and locations are vague. Next week has some heat returning after a brief attempt at cooling down this weekend but once again moisture forecasts remain rather vague. The USDA report, I believe, has been factored into the current price structure. The average guesstimate for soybean production is 4.153 billion bu. and the projected carryout at 420 million bu. both of these figures are slightly higher vs. what the USDA has been giving us the previous couple of months.

The interior soybean basis has an easier look to it. I have to think we saw some decent movement late last week, early this week. The Gulf has a firm tone as it feels the effects of not getting much product via the Illinois River. The lock and dam closures are also firming the Gulf basis for soybean meal. Soybean spreads ran mixed on the day – August gains on its respective spreads while Sept loses on its respective spreads. Meal spreads had a fractional bearish all the way out.

It appears to be pretty clear that the bean and meal markets have moved into a downside correctional phase. I feel like a lost soul when it comes to bean oil as it went home looking good on Tuesday and never really saw the light of day today. The best looking support for November soybeans is down towards the mid-$8.80’s while the best looking support for December meal is closer to the $298.0 level. AS I said earlier weather and its subsequent forecasts will continue to be our driving force unless the USDA has a surprise for us on Friday (which I’m not expecting).

Daily Support & Resistance – 7/09

Aug Soybeans: $8.85 – $9.02

Nov Soybeans: $8.90 – $9.07

Dec Soy Meal: $298.0 – $305.0

Dec Soy Oil: $28.80 – $29.50


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