Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

Weekly Corn Export Inspections – 902.6 K T. vs. 600 K – 1.150 M T. expected

USDA says US corn crop now rated 69% GE (-2%) vs. 70% expected vs. 58% year ago – Silking – 29% vs. 32% 5-year average – Dough Stage – 3% vs. 3% 5-year average

So much for a bull market in the summer of 2020. Granted the USDA report featured estimates lower vs. trade ideas but they are still big numbers. Adding to the market’s misery is the weather. The “hot & dry” that was being suggested a week or so ago has failed to materialize. Forecasts going forward still suggest some rebuilding heat but there appears to be enough rain in these forecasts that will go far in offsetting the potential impact of a “hot & dry”. Trade ideas are already talking about bigger yields for the August production report. Yes, China took the second biggest chunk of corn ever on Friday but it seems the relationships between the US and China are souring leading to ideas that future purchases by them may be hard to come by. The only plus I saw today was the Brazil saying their soybean loading program will dominate any potential corn business leaving their ports at least until September.

Chart Talk – December Corn – it doesn’t take rocket science to see just how ugly the price action has gotten. It took 4 days (June 26th to July 3rd) to rally 41 cents (low to high) and just three days (July 9th to July 13th) to break 27 cents (high to low). Without a serious weather threat out there one has to think the contract low ($3.22) may be in jeopardy later this week. Near term rally potential from short term oversold ideas should be limited to the mid-high $3.40’s.

Daily Support & Resistance – 7/14

Sept Corn: $3.23 – $3.36  

Dec Corn $3.30 – $3.43  

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.