Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

Sept Corn closed 4 ¾ cents lower ($3.28 ¼), Dec 4 cents lower ($3.35 ¾) & March 3 ½ cents lower ($3.46 ¼)

August Chgo Ethanol closed $0.063 cents a gallon lower ($1.107), Sept $0.055 cents lower ($1.080)

Weekly Corn Export Inspections – 1.149 M T. vs. 650 K – 1.100 M T. expected

USDA says US Corn Crop now rated 69% GE (unch) vs. 68% expected vs. 57% year ago – Silking – 59% vs. 54% 5-year average – Dough Stage – 9% vs. 7% 5-year average

Beneficial weather over the weekend especially for some of the drier areas of the eastern Corn Belt along with forecasts for more this coming week weighs on the corn market. A continued sell-off in the wheat market added to the bearish sentiment. The recent collapse in the ethanol market is not helping. So what got the corn market off of its early in the day lows – great looking export inspections and the idea that China may return to the US corn export market. In the past two months China has sold about 32 M T. of old corn out of its reserves. This needs to be replaced. The question then becomes from whom and how fast. This all remains to be seen.

Over the weekend I’ve seen a number of articles relating to the flooding along the Yangtze River in China. This is not a primary corn area but it does take the top off of their crop.

I’m not seeing a lot of change with the interior Midwestern corn basis. The gulf market continues to show a firm tone all the way out to the new crop. As Corn Belt producers begin to realize the success of their pollination old crop corn should begin to move. Some of this was reflected today with the noticeable bear spreading.

The interim downtrend that started one week ago Friday (July 10th) remains intact. The only positive that I saw about today’s price performance is that prices did not finish on their lows. If we are turn the momentum around to higher we minimally need to see prices above last week’s highs. Closes below $3.30 (Dec) will suggest no sustainable rally anytime soon.

Daily Support & Resistance – 7/21

Sept Corn: $3.22 – $3.33  

Dec Corn $3.30 – $3.41  

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.