Sept Corn closed 3 cents higher ($3.14 ½), Dec 3 ¾ cents higher ($3.27 ¼) & March 3 ½ cents higher ($3.38 ¾)
Sept Chgo Ethanol closed $0.013 cents a gallon higher ($1.230), Oct $0.013 higher ($1.229)
Weekly Ethanol Grind Week of 8/07 – 918 K bpd vs. 931 week ago – Stocks – 19.7 million bbls vs. 20.3 week ago
Weekly Corn Export Sales – old crop vs. 100-400 K T. expected – new crop vs. 300 K – 1.000 M T. expected
USDA corn yield – 181.8 bpa vs. 180.5 expected vs. 178.5 last month
USDA corn production – 15.278 billion bu. vs. 15.174 expected vs. 15.000 last month
USDA new crop corn carryout – 2.756 billion bu. vs. 2.800 expected vs. 2.648 last month
USDA old crop corn carryout – 2.228 billion bu. vs. 2.271 expected vs. 2.248 last month
USDA World new crop corn carryout – 317.46 M T. vs. 320.32 expected vs. 315.04 last month
USDA World old crop corn carryout – 311.30 M T. vs. 312.62 expected vs. 311.95 last month
On the surface US corn production/yield come in higher than expected yet the US carryout comes in lower than expected. It’s called improving demand. Add the unknown of the recent storm damage in the “I” states and it suggests the projected crop and carryout may not be as large as we see today. In addition we see the World projected carryout not as great as expected (+2.4 M T. vs. +5.0 M T. expected) even though global production is slated to increase by nearly 8.0 M T. Once again its called demand. As we move through the balance of the week we should hear additional estimates of potential crop damage that was created earlier in the week.
December corn challenges contract lows and ran out of sellers. The lack of downside follow through sparked some spec short covering. Dec corn charts are now suggesting we’ve gone low enough for the time being. With that said I would expect to see some additional short covering. The mid-$3.30’s appears to be the next level of resistance.
Daily Support & Resistance – 8/13
Sept Corn: $3.11 – $3.20
Dec Corn: $3.24 – $3.33
The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.