March Corn closed ¼ cent higher ($3.78 ½), July ½ cent higher ($3.94 ¾) & Dec ¾ cent higher ($4.02 ¼)
February Chgo Ethanol closes 0.001 cents a gallon lower ($1.286) & March 0.005 cents lower ($1.303)
Weekly Corn Export Inspections – 1.013 M T. vs. 500-900 K T. expected – Cumulative for the year – 19.468 M T. vs. 12.062 M T. year ago
Flat price corn tries to go it alone on Monday. It was higher early (cued by stronger oats and the bull side of inter-market spreads), easier midday and finishing fractionally higher on the day. Attitudes are that if we ever get a production update from last season it will look friendly for at least US data. Some in the trade still talk about the possibility of some Chinese buying closer to the end of the month as that is when decision makers from both China and the US meet in Washington DC. Weekly corn export inspections were deemed solid. As we move forward talk will continue over the possibility of Chinese corn purchases at or near month end as well as SA weather. Soybean harvest has just started in earnest in Brazil and second season corn planting will follow as the soybeans come out. Parts of Brazil have been a dry bias of late. This will be closely monitored as to potential impacts to their second season corn crop. If you recall last year’s second season corn crop was decimated by drought.
Most interior cash corn markets, in not steady, read a touch easier. The Gulf saw a noticeably jump on Friday. It appears that strength is still with us today. The Gulf strength is being attributed to higher freight rates. I can’t help but notice corn at the Gulf trades almost daily at slightly higher advertised levels for the JFM periods. Despite this corn spreads continue to show a widening bias. March/May corn trades at an 8 ½ cent carry; a level not seen since September. March/July trades at contract lows; a 16 ¼ cent carry. As long as spreads show the bias to widen I have to question the flat price’s ability to sustain a rally of any magnitude.
Flat price corn remains a trading range affair between $3.55 and $4.00; currently almost midrange. Price charts are featuring a sideways triangulation pattern that would suggest further strength if we take out last week’s high at $3.84 ½ or further weakness if we take out the recent low of $3.72 ½ which occurred 2 weeks ago. As of this writing I’ll go with whichever way the price action suggests.
Daily Support & Resistance for 01/15
Mch Corn: $3.76 – $3.83
July Corn: $3.92 – $3.99
The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.