Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

July Corn closed 40 cents higher ($6.64 ½), Sept 38 ¼ cents higher ($5.85 ½) & Dec 34 ¼ cents higher ($5.55)

Weekly Corn Export Sales – 555.9 K T. old crop vs. -100 +400 K T. expected – 5.691 M T. new crop vs. 5.900-7.000 M T. expected

USDA announces Corn Export Sales – 152.4 K T. new crop sold to unknown (S. Korea??)

Flat price corn gets recent losses back in a hurry. Based on spreads July corn was worth another 2-3 cents higher at the close. Strong looking old crop corn sales was a major catalyst that got today’s rally in the full speed ahead motion following yesterday’s suggested interim reversal. New crop corn sales albeit a big number were actually less than expected. The daily trade chatter brings renewed Chinese buying back into the mix. For what it is worth US and Chinese trade representatives had their first phone call together since Mr. Biden took office. The phone call has been described as “candid”. The break on Tuesday/Wednesday was about China cancelling old crop. It seems like whenever we get into these extreme moves China is the primary influence. Please realize that part of these extreme moves is due to the high rate of volatility. High prices go hand in hand with high volatility.

Interior cash corn markets continue to show the processors with the best basis levels; especially the eastern processors. I’m following a western processor that is actually easing his basis. Interior river locations are mostly steady with their basis levels. The Gulf basis appears to be easing from strength we saw earlier in the week. As I mentioned nearby spreads involving the July contract are a bit better vs. what settlements are showing. Sept rebounds vs. the Dec from recent easing.

So – is everyone in step with these recent exaggerated moves? This volatility is not going to go away anytime soon. Flat price corn goes home with short term inter-day considerations reading overbought. Short term weather appears okay for now. Forecasts don’t appear threatening (yet). We’ve got a 3-day weekend coming at us. Given the rally of the past day and a half the trade will be looking for some sales’ announcements; more than the 152.4 K T. announced today to unknown.

Daily Support & Resistance – 05/28

July Corn: $6.46 – $6.84  

Dec Corn: $5.40 – $5.70

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.