Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

July Corn closed 10 ¾ cent higher ($6.90 ¾), Sept 4 cents higher ($6.32) & Dec ¼ cent higher ($6.09 ¾)

Weekly Ethanol Grind as of June 4thProduction – 1.067 M bpd vs. 1.034 M week ago – Stocks – 20.0 M bbls vs. 19.6 M week ago

Weekly Corn Export Sales – old crop vs. 100-500 K T. expected – new crop vs. 200-600 K T. expected

Flat price corn gets beat up Tuesday night early Wednesday and then spends the balance of the day session coming back. The sell-off was tied to the scattered rains that moved across the Dakotas while the come back was tied to the warm and dry scenario that will persist for the western Corn Belt (lots of focus on Iowa) as well as the idea we could see a bullish corn report from the USDA tomorrow. For what it is worth we get another solid weekly ethanol grind report.

The interior Midwestern cash corn markets are trying to show signs of stabilization after their recent slide. This holds true for the midday posting at the gulf. The rebound in the flat price had the July contract leading the way. Have to wonder if the index fund roll out of the July has run its course despite two more days to go.

If you can’t handle the weather related gyrations this is not the market for you. Dec corn came within a ¼ cent of filling the Friday close to the Monday higher gap and then bounces noticeably (that’s not bearish). Weather considerations will continue to dominate aided by a tight looking market (both old crop & new crop) as of this writing. Until we see a break coming in the current warm & dry scenario new crop corn futures should remain well supported.

Daily Support & Resistance – 06/10

July Corn: $6.78 – $7.12 (?)  

Dec Corn: $5.98 – $6.20 ($6.34)

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.