Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

July Corn closed 8 ¼ cents higher ($6.99), Sept 6 ¼ cents higher ($6.38 ¼) & Dec 6 ¾ cents higher ($6.16 ½)

Weekly Corn Export Sales – 189.6 K T. vs. 100-500 K T. expected – 26.4 K T. new crop vs. 200-600 K T. expected

CONAB – Brazilian Corn Production – 96.392 M T. vs. 106.4 M T. month ago

USDA Supply-Demand Highlights –  US – old crop carryout declines 150 M bu. due to increasing the ethanol grind 75 M bu. and increasing exports 75 M Bu. – lowered the new crop carryout 150 M Bu. due to the lower carryin – left all new crop demand data unchanged – World – lowered old crop carryout 2.9 M T. due to the decline in the US carryout – lowered new crop carryout a like amount

Wicked volatility immediately following the USDA report. July corn punches to 26 cents higher then proceeds to break 23 cents and then retraces that break by 18 cents. This all occurred in the 30 minutes following the release of the report. Dec corn saw similar price action but to a slightly lesser extent; traded 18 cents higher, then broke 17 cents followed by a 14 cent retracement of that break. The balance of the session saw both old crop and new crop drifting easier down to the interim lows that were made shortly after the report was released.

So what does it all mean? Old corn corn should stay relatively tight unless we start seeing export cancellations. Over the next 2 ½ weeks new crop corn will have to deal with weather related issues vs. the idea of higher acreage on the June 30th report. It would not surprise me to see Dec corn move into a trading range affair between now and the 30th; trading between $6.40 on the upside and $5.85 on the downside (weather permitting).

Daily Support & Resistance – 06/11

July Corn: $6.88 – $7.18  

Dec Corn: $6.00 – $6.30

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.