Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

July Corn closed 5 ½ cents higher ($6.73), Sept 3 ¼ cents lower ($5.88 ½) & Dec 1 ¼ cents lower ($5.72 ½)

USDA announces Corn Export Sales – 153.4 K T. sold to unknown

Weekly Ethanol Grind as of 6/11Production – 1.025 M bpd vs. 1.067 week ago – Stocks – 20.6 M bbls vs. 20.0 M week ago

Weekly Corn Export Sales – Old crop vs. -100 +400 K T. expected – new crop vs. 100-500 K T. expected

In the last number of days much of the trade focus has moved to the new crop and the weather implications. Not a lot of talk has been about the old crop July. Last week the July contract was getting beat up on the spread as the index funds rolled out. Now we have the July contract getting some of that lost spread premium back. We must remember that the demand for old crop corn has not gone away. The ethanol grind has rebounded noticeably and we still have that export program to fulfill. Back in May there were no deliveries against that contract. My thought is why should it be any different for the July contract.

New crop corn continues to get caught up in the weather game. Earlier this week we traded the better forecast for next week. Today the new crop tried to find support from the current conditions (continued hot & dry in the west and northwest). Forecasts for next week and beyond continue to stay relatively consistent with the idea for cooler temps and beneficial moisture but there has some questioning as to the amounts of moisture for Iowa and the Dakotas.

Dec corn appears to have gone into a minor holding pattern as it awaits next week’s weather. $5.50 looks like support while $6.000 likes resistance and we are currently right in the middle. Unless forecasts for next week change dramatically one way or the other this minor holding pattern may stay with us through Friday’s close.

Daily Support & Resistance – 06/17

July Corn: $6.55 – $6.90  

Dec Corn: $5.60 – $5.89

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