Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

December Corn closed 12 ¾ cents higher ($5.39 ½), March 12 ½ cents higher ($5.47) & May 12 ¾ cents higher ($5.51 ¾)

Weekly Corn Export Inspections – 517.5 K T. vs. 300-575 K T. expected

Weekly Corn Crop Condition & Progress – 59% GE (unch) vs. 59% expected vs. 61% year ago – Mature – 74% vs. 64% 5-year ave – Harvested – 18% vs. 19% expected vs. 15% 5-year ave

The Sunday night corn trade was a quiet one; not even a 3 cent range. The day session brought us a burst of buying that took prices to levels not seen since August 31st. The rationale behind the buying, despite the beginning of harvest, was stronger energy prices, the NOLA Gulf becoming more operational as evidenced by the weekly export inspections and my opinion that the corn yield is not as great as originally thought. So far I’ve only heard of one yield report where it was reported as better than expected. Most are coming in as expected to a bit less than expected. I’m also seeing a bit of risk premium ahead of Thursday’s stocks report. The Sept quarterly stocks report basically sets the past season’s carryout. The average guess is 1.155 B bu., 30 M bu. less than the most recent carryout projection.

Interior cash markets are running mixed. Some locations have stabilized following recent weakness, others are showing improvement while others are still softening. The Gulf remains firm vs. where it was one week ago. Dec gains fractionally vs. March while March loses to May and July.

Today’s close now sets up Dec corn for a test of the suspected $5.45 – $5.55 resistance level. Harvest weather should offer minimum resistance for the next 10 days or so. With that said it is my thought the next move higher will not come as easily vs. what we saw today.

Daily Support & Resistance – 09/28

Dec Corn: $5.24 – $5.35

March Corn: $5.31 – $5.43

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.