December Corn closed 1 ½ cents lower ($5.84 ¾), March 1 ¼ cents higher ($5.87 ¼) & May ½ cent higher ($5.89)
USDA announces Corn Export Sales – 1.844 M T. to Mexico (1.0896 M T. old crop, 754.4 K T. new crop)
Weekly Ethanol Grind (12/03) – 1.090 M bpd vs. 1.035 M week ago – Stocks – 20.5 M bbls vs. 20.3 M week ago
Weekly Corn Export Sales – old crop vs. 600 K – 1.400 M T. expected – new crop vs. 0-50 K T. expected
I’m told the Mexico sale is the biggest one-day sale to them ever. The ethanol grind rebounds. The lower US Dollar helps to keep US corn exports competitive. All of this worked to support the corn market keeping its recent grind higher intact. I also saw a fair amount of inter-market spreading; the liquidation of long wheat vs. short corn.
The interior processor basis for corn continues to stand in. river locations involved with export ran mixed; some lower, some higher. The Gulf basis stays strong despite some minor day-to-day fluctuations. Corn spreads showed a tightening bias within the old crop. Old crop gains fractionally on the new crop.
Tomorrow we get the USDA updated carryout data. The average trade guess for the US corn carryout is 1.481 B bu.; a decline of 12 M bu. the World carryout estimate is 304.48 M T.; an increase of 60 K T. I’m still with the frame of mind that somewhere between $5.90 and $6.00 stops this rally. I’m not looking for a collapse but rather a trading range type market.
Daily Support & Resistance – 12/09
March Corn: $5.80 – $5.97
July Corn: $5.82 – $5.99
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