January Soybeans closed 10 ¾ cents higher ($12.61), March 10 ½ cents higher ($12.68 ¾) & May 10 ½ cents higher ($12.76)
December Soybean Meal closed $6.7 higher ($365.6), Jan $7.5 higher ($357.2) & March $7.4 higher ($356.7)
December Soybean Oil closed 158 pts lower ($55.46), Jan 155 pts lower ($55.55) & March 148 pts lower ($55.63)
USDA announces Soybean Export Sales – 130 K T. to China
Weekly Soybean Export Sales – old crop vs. 1.000-1.700 M T. expected – new crop vs. 0-75 K T. expected
Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – old crop vs. 100-250 K T. expected – new crop vs. 0-20 K T. expected
Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – old crop vs. 5-40 K T. expected – new crop vs. 0-10 K T. expected
Soybean oil takes it on the chin from the less than desired bio-diesel mandate from the EPA yesterday afternoon. The decline in bean oil prompted another round of inter-market spread unwinding; the liquidation of long soybean oil vs. short soybean meal. Soybean take their cue from the higher meal market as well as the developing dryness concerns in south-southeastern Brazil as well as in parts of Argentina. Forecasters warned of a La Nina down there and not it appears it is trying take hold. The continued announced daily sales, albeit small, do add up.
The interior soybean processors continue to show the best basis levels. Despite an easing Board crush margin their basis levels remain strong. The river basis for soybeans has a mixed look to it as some are noticeably lower while other inch higher. The gulf basis for soybeans stays strong while erratic at times. Soybean spreads saw fractional tightening in the old crop while losing to the new crop. The interior offers for cash soybean meal continue to show easing while the export market is fully steady. Meal spreads tightened due to the influx of today’s buying.
Was the EPA’s bio-diesel announcement the death knell for the soybean oil market? I’m not sure where soybean meal would be if were not for the unwinding of the long bean oil short bean meal spreads. Soybeans refuse to give up the ship until our export market breaks and/or we see some relief in the areas of concern in Brazil and Argentina. Tomorrow’s USDA supply-demand update is estimated to show a 14 M bu. increase in or carryout to 354 M bu. The World carryout is expected to expand by 480 K T. to 104.26 M T. CONAB is scheduled to give us new production ideas in the early morning.
Daily Support & in Resistance – 12/09
Jan Beans: $12.40 – $12.80
Jan Meal: $348.0 – $365.0
Jan Soy Oil: $54.00 (?) – $57.00
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