March Corn closed 1 ½ cents higher ($6.03 ¾), July 2 cents higher ($6.02 ¼) & Dec ½ cent lower ($5.54 ¼)
Weekly Corn Export Sales – 256.1 K T. old crop vs. 500 K – 1.200 M T. expected – no new crop vs. 0-75 K T. expected
Flat price moves into a consolidation mode as it spends the 2nd day inside of Tuesday’s range. Weakness early in the session is attributed to outside markets (equities, precious metals) and weekly export sales. The weekly export sales were some of the lowest of the season is not the lowest but this was dismissed as it was the last week of the year as well as a holiday week. Support comes from the ongoing dryness in southern Brazil and in Argentina and a higher crude oil market. Forecasts for Argentina are calling for some of the biggest heat of the season over the next week or so. The latter part of January is forecasted to see better moisture for both north central Argentina and southern Brazil. So – will the crop be totally fried before we see relief?
Interior corn basis levels are mixed as processors are firm while river locations are mixed depending upon location. The Gulf basis has a firm bias. Corn spreads eased fractionally within the old crop while old crop gains on the new crop. If one can get past the daily gyrations corn spreads are in a bullish mode.
The technical look suggests flat price corn is biased to move higher. Weather in S. America will be a supporting issue but its not the only one. Demand for US corn stays persistent for both ethanol and export as evidenced with the cash markets. Next Wednesday the USDA will finalize last season’s production and give us a look at first quarter demand. I have not yet seen trade estimates but the trend since September has been for higher production.
Daily Support & Resistance – 01/07
March Corn: $5.99 – $6.12 (?)
July Corn: $5.97 – $6.10 (?)
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