January Soybeans closed 7 cents lower ($13.77 ¼), March 7 ½ cents lower ($13.87 ¼) & July 6 ¼ cents lower ($14.00 ¾)
January Soybean Meal closed $3.7 lower ($420.4), March $2.4 lower ($411.0) & July $1.8 lower ($409.1)
January Soybean Oil closed 54 pts lower ($58.78), March 54 pts lower ($58.90) & July 42 pts lower ($58.79)
Weekly Soybean Export Sales – 382.7 K T. old crop vs. 400 K – 1.300 M T. expected – 67.1 K T. new crop vs. 0-50 K T. expected
Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – 31.5 K T. old crop vs. 25-250 K T. expected – 0.3 K T. new crop vs. 0-20 K T. expected
Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – 2.9 K T. old crop vs. 0-25 K T. expected – 0.1 K T. new crop vs. 0-10 K T. expected
It was quite the consolidation session for soybeans and its respective products. Nighttime weakness is being attributed to outside market influence (equities and precious metals) while support comes from declining crop ideas out of Brazil. The puny weekly export sales were dismissed due to last week being a holiday week through much of the world. We have now seen two reputable firms suggest the Brazilian crop size is now in the 134.0 M T. range. Last month the USDA suggested 144.0 M T. and CONAB was at the 142.8 M T. mark. Weather for southern Brazil will continue to show a dry bias but there will scattered showers around. Argentina is forecasted to see some big time heat in the near term. The later part of the month is forecasted to see a bit of a trend change for both Brazil (wetter south, drier north) and Argentina (wetter north central).
The interior cash soybean market runs steady to better whether it’s the processor or involved with export. The spot market at the Gulf is starting pick up where December left off. The difference between 1st half Jan vs. all of Jan has tightened into a 12 cent inverse.
The technical look at March soybeans suggests $14.15 here we come. The meal market looks no worse that consolidation at its recent upper end. Today’s bean oil trade inside of yesterday suggests a challenge of the $60.00-$60.25 level is still in play. Next Wednesday the USDA will finalize last season’s production. The trend since September has been for lightly higher production increases. If this stays true it could go far in offsetting some of the potential crop losses out of Brazil. I wouldn’t be surprised if export sales projections decline.
Daily & Resistance – 01/07
March Beans: $13.78 – $14.02 (?)
March Meal: $407.0 – ???
March Soy Oil: $57.75 – $60.15
The risk of trading and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.