Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

July Corn closed 12 cents higher ($4.27 ¾), Sept 12 ¼ cents higher ($4.36 ¼) & Dec 12 ½ cents higher ($4.47)

July Chgo Ethanol closed $0.042 cents a gallon higher ($1.515) & August $0.042 cents a gallon higher ($1.515)

Flat price corn vaults higher as new crop production was cut by 1.35 billion bu. and carryout was slashed by 810 million bu. The carryin was increased by 100 million bu. while total demand was cut by 425 million bu. total planted acres were cut by 3.0 million as was the harvested acreage figure by a like amount. The new crop World carryout was cut by 24.19 M T. as total World production was cut by 34.59 M T.

Today’s report will open the door for further discussion as to how many acres will get entered into the “prevent plant” program. Additionally this puts further emphasis on how the growing season develops. Bottomline – the potential is there for higher prices.

Interior cash corn (basis) continues to show a firm bias as producer movement remains quite slow. It looks like some of our river locations may be looking at some easing of their recent logistical issues as I am seeing some their basis quotes increasing. I do think we may have seen some corn move on today’s rally as nearby corn spreads did show some easing. The December contract was the strongest on the Board. That suggests this contract is the new focus of the funds’ participation.

In recent days I’ve been going back and forth between the ideas of consolidation vs. a possible top. Today’s activity clears that up for me; it’s consolidation. To see the next leg up we still need to weekly closes (with conviction) above last week’s highs.

Daily Support & Resistance for 06/12

July Corn: $4.23 – $4.38  

Dec Corn: $4.42 – $4.54 (?)

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