Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

July Chgo Wheat closed 9 ¼ cents higher ($5.35 ½), Sept 8 cents higher ($5.39) & Dec 7 ½ cents higher ($5.49 ¾)

July KC Wheat closed 5 ½ cents higher ($4.68 ¼), Sept 5 ¾ cents higher ($4.81 ¼) & Dec 4 ½ cents higher ($5.02 ¾)

July Mpls Wheat closed 1 ½ cents higher ($5.66 ¼), Sept ¾ cent higher ($5.73 ¾) & Dec ¾ cent higher ($5.84 ¾)

Weekly Wheat Export Sales – 325.4 K T. old crop (2019-20) vs. 250-450 K T. expected – no new crop (2020-21) vs. none expected

Flat price continues to move higher from short covering led by the Chgo contract. Concerns continue to mount as to the quality of the SRW especially given forecasts for new flooding potential in the eastern Corn Belt. Additionally; if this year’s corn crop truly gets decimated demand for feed wheat will increase. The KC and Mpls markets follow but to a lesser extent. Yes, there are concerns around the quality of the soon to be harvested HRW but to a lesser extent vs. the concerns over the SRW crop. Mpls lags Chgo and KC due to forecasted rains for the Canadian prairies.

Toledo continues to reach for SRW. Other locations involved with SRW are firm as well but not as strong looking as Toledo. The Gulf is fully steady for SRW. Chgo spreads continue to be firm in its quest for quality milling wheat. Basis is quiet but fully steady for HRW as is its export market. Spreads in Chgo continue to show a firm bias while in KC not so much.

July Chgo wheat is now the highest it has been since late January. Last week’s attempt to correct, now violated, measures to $5.60. July KC wheat continues to lag Chgo badly. Then again it’s the Chgo market that has all of the emotion. July KC has a long way to go before it tests its significant looking resistance at the $5.10-$5.20 level.

Daily Support & Resistance for 06/14

July Chgo Wheat: $5.05 – $5.28

July KC Wheat: $4.49 – $4.70

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.