Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

July Corn closed 4 ½ cents higher ($4.46 ¾), Sept 4 ¼ cents higher ($4.51 ¾) & Dec 3 ¾ cents higher ($4.57 ¼)

July Chgo Ethanol closed unchanged ($1.575) & August $0.004 cents a gallon higher ($1.590)

Weekly Corn Export Inspections – 617.7 K T. vs. 600-800 K T. expected

Weekly Corn Condition & Progress – 56% GE (-3%) vs. 59% expected vs. 77% year ago – Planted – 96% vs. 96% expected vs. 100% 5-year average – Emerged – 89% vs. 99% 5-year average

US corn futures garner modest strength from excessive rainfall through a large part of the Corn Belt over the weekend, strength in wheat, the unknown over unplanted acres and the idea of less than desired US corn crop conditions. Excessive heat developing in Europe and the ongoing dry conditions in the Black Sea region adds to the support as their respective maize/corn crops come into question. At the end of the week the USDA will report Planted Acres as of June 1st along with the old crop Quarterly Stocks. The question around the acreage figure will be how much did the USDA factor in the wet spring. We know the USDA already did one acreage reduction earlier this month; down 3.0 million acres to 89.8 (planted) and 82.4 (harvested). The old crop quarterly stocks figure should be a large number. Whether or not this works to offset a low acreage number remains to be seen. Forecasts for the near term call for warmer conditions along with a slightly drier bias (not totally void of moisture).

Other than the Ohio River corn basis running easier most other advertised interior corn basis levels ran unchanged on the day. The Gulf midday appeared to running unchanged with late Friday’s posting. Corn spreads rebounded from Friday’s option expiration induced selling. It will be interesting to see Friday’s 1st notice day deliveries given the current strength in the interior corn basis. It should be noted that the majority of the CBOT delivery points are on the Illinois River where off-loading capacity is limited.

Futures are in a minor consolidation phase sitting 10-15 cents below last week’s high of the move. It would not surprise me to see prices continue in this mode as we lead up to Friday’s USDA reports (acreage & quarterly stocks). In the short term I would expect to see some minor sell stop activity if we take out Friday’s lows. The topside should be limited to the $4.65-$4.70 level.

Daily Support & Resistance for 06/25

Sept Corn: $4.45 – $4.59  

Dec Corn: $4.51 – $4.65

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.