Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

July Soybeans closed 6 ¼ cents higher ($9.09), August 6 ¼ cents higher ($9.14 ¾) & Nov 5 ¼ cents higher ($9.32 ¾)

July Soybean Meal closed $2.0 higher ($317.6), August $1.9 higher ($318.9) & Dec $1.9 higher ($326.1)

July Soybean Oil closed 9 pts lower ($28.35), August 9 pts lower ($28.48) & Dec 11 pts lower ($28.96)

Weekly Soybean Export Inspections – 682.1 K T. vs. 500-775 K T. expected

Weekly Soybeans Condition & Progress – 54% GE vs. 59% expected vs. 73% year ago – Planted – 85% vs. 88% expected vs. 97% 5-year average – Emerged – 71% vs. 91% 5-year average

Too much weekend rainfall impacts the last leg of soybean planting and this led to modestly higher soybean and soybean meal prices. Soybean oil was the weak link as it could not offset lower palm prices. It wasn’t that long ago the trade was talking about increasing soybean acres due to lost corn acres. In the last few weeks that idea of an increase has become an idea of a decrease in soybean acres. Most of the decrease in planted soybean acres will come from Illinois and points further east. The USDA will report on planted soybean acres at the end of this week. This report was supposedly as of June 1st when the idea then was about an increase in soybean acres. Additionally the USDA will report on old crop Quarterly Stocks. This number should be nothing short of huge.

With the exception of the Ohio River (easing) all other interior soybean basis locations ran unchanged vs. Friday’s postings. The Gulf too runs unchanged with Friday’s late posting on its midday update. The nearby soybean spread runs unchanged while old crop gains about 1 cent on the new crop. Meal spreads ran similar with only fractional increases.

Soybean charts show a waiting game just below recent highs for the current rally. Poor demand is being offset by questions around planted acres (how much won’t get planted) and the idea of less than desirable growing conditions. It should be noted that short term forecasts do showing warming with less moisture (not totally void of moisture).

Daily Support & Resistance for 06/25

Aug Soybeans: $9.05 – $9.25

Nov Soybeans: $9.22 – $9.42

Aug Soybean Meal: $316.0 ($314.0) – $325.0

August Soybean Oil: $28.15 – $29.00

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.