Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

Sept Corn closed 11 ½ cents lower ($4.24 ½), Dec 11 ¾ cents lower ($4.29 ¾) & March 10 ½ cents lower ($4.38 ¼)

August Chgo Ethanol closed $0.031 cents a gallon lower ($1.447) & Sept $0.026 cents lower ($1.469)

Weekly Corn Export Sales – 200.0 K T. old crop vs. 250-500 K T. expected – 133.0 K T. new crop vs. 100-300 K T. expected

Weekly export sales were puny at best. Recent weather is considered beneficial to crop development. The much advertised heat wave will break by late this weekend and then we move into a cooler and bit drier period; nothing extreme one way of the other. Crop conditions are expected to show further improvement next Monday afternoon. Add all of the aforementioned together and it equals more fund/spec liquidation.

The interior corn basis has taken on a mixed look. The Ohio River continues to edge higher. The Illinois River appears to be edging lower. Processors continue to stand as they look to secure supplies going forward fearful of a short crop this fall. Corn spreads showed a bearish bias especially the 2019/20 crop year vs. the 2020/21 crop year. This bear spreading goes hand in hand with the flat price liquidation. Not much is happening at the Gulf.

Short and simple – $4.20 is the next downside target for December corn. Failure to hold there would suggest something closer to $4.05. New short term resistance is going to be the mid-$4.40’s. I know tomorrow is the end of the week and corn prices have taken a beating; down nearly 37 cents from the Sunday night high. Is it too much to ask for some technical stabilization or is the market on a mission to flush out every spec long? In all my years when we see a July break in Ag prices following a spring rally it usually gets pretty severe. This year is turning out no different from a technical standpoint despite what some will say are entirely different fundamental circumstances.

Daily Support & Resistance for 07/19

Sept Corn: $4.20 ($4.15) – $4.34  

Dec Corn: $4.25 ($4.20) – $4.39

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