Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

August Soybeans closed 1 ¼ cents lower ($8.81 ¼), Sept 1 ¼ cents lower ($8.87) & Nov 1 ½ cents lower ($8.99)

August Soybean Meal closed $0.5 lower ($307.0), Sept $0.6 lower ($308.4) & Dec $0.8 lower ($312.8)

August Soybean Oil closed 4 pts lower ($27.64), Sept 5 pts lower ($27.74) & Dec 6 pts lower ($28.05)

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – 127.9 K T. old crop vs. 0-400 K T. expected – 198.4 K T. new crop vs. 100-300 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – 65.3 K T. old crop vs. 50-200 K T. expected – 149.5 K T. new crop vs. 0-100 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – 12.2 K T. old crop vs. 5-45 K T. expected – 1.5 K T. new crop vs. 0-5 K T. expected

Meager soybean export sales coupled with recent rainfall and somewhat benign forecasts going forward had soybeans down 7-8 cents in the early going on Thursday. Modest short covering appeared mid-session that brought prices back to a few cents higher on the day. The balance of the day was spent trading 2 cents lower to 2 cents higher; finally finishing down one cent or so for the day. I’m not sure what prompted the midday short covering since feed grains were well entrenched with noticeable losses on the day. Only minor losses in the product markets did offer some stability. Some reported they did not want to be short in the hole just in case something comes out of the resuming Chinese/US trade talks. I’m not holding my breath with that especially since this morning’s export sales report featured previous sales to unknown being cancelled thought to be for China.

Interior soybean processors report steady basis levels. Interior river basis levels are sagging. The Gulf continues to edge lower from last Friday’s highs. Soybean spreads ran mostly unchanged out to March of 2020 and then started losing a bit more ground. Meal spreads saw fractional improvements as basis offers run unchanged.

I’m not sure what kept the soybean market alive on Thursday. Price charts continue to suggest a lower bias. Not only do the price charts read lower for soybeans they also read lower for the product markets. Maybe the trade needs to hear more as to how the trade talks are progressing before re-evaluating existing positions.

Daily Support & Resistance for 07/19

Aug Soybeans: $8.72 – $8.95

Nov Soybeans: $8.90 – $9.14

Aug Soybean Meal: $304.0 – $311.0

August Soybean Oil: $27.40 – $28.10

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.