Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

Sept Corn closed 8 ½ cents lower ($4.22 ¼), Dec 9 cents lower ($4.26 ¾) & March 8 ¼ cents lower ($4.35 ¾)

August Chgo Ethanol closed $0.007 cents a gallon lower ($1.465) & Sept $0.010 cents lower ($1.486)

Weekly Corn Export Inspections – 438.0 K T. vs. 500-750 K T. expected

Weekly Corn Crop Condition & Progress – 57% GE vs. 58% expected vs. 72% year ago – Silking – 35% vs. 66% 5-year average – Dough Stage – 5% vs. 10% 5-year average

After last Friday’s respite from lower prices fund liquidation got back on track today. It was just one week ago we saw today’s price action. The market rallied on Friday, came in marginally higher Sunday night and then spent the rest of the day session moving lower. Weekly export inspections were disappointing based on expectations. Last week’s heat wave broke over the weekend with scattered moisture around. Some areas got good moisture while others not so much. Ideas are that the corn crop condition report will report stable to slightly better. Forecasts going forward feature moderating temps this week with a dry bias. Next week the talk is for better moisture. Heat such as saw in recent days is not in the forecast. Supply biased traders are still confused by the break in the market (lost acres). Demand biased traders understand the break (not much export demand out there).

Sept corn gains on Dec corn but that about it as bears spreads dominated Dec forward. Interior cash corn prices (basis) have taken on a mixed look. The Ohio River is easier as is Council Bluffs. Cedar Rapids and Seneca, Il are a bit better. The Gulf reads steady after easing on Friday. Cash corn sales are erratic at best. Where new crop has pollinated successfully there are some old crop sale being made. Where pollinating has yet to occur sales are minimal at best. Processors continue to show the best basis levels especially in the eastern Corn Belt.

Will Dec corn realize support from $4.25 to $4.20? Daily momentum indicators are still pointing south. We still have the Memorial Day weekend gap at $4.20. Failure to hold that level will suggest $4.15 to $4.10 as the next support level. We need to see closes above the $4.40 level to steady things up which in turn will confirm trading range ideas as we wait for the USDA on August 12th with acreage updates.

Daily Support & Resistance for 07/23

Sept Corn: $4.20 ($4.15) – $4.32  

Dec Corn: $4.24 ($4.20) – $4.36

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.