Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

August Soybeans closed 13 ¼ cents lower ($8.88 ¼), Sept 13 ¼ cents lower ($8.94) & Nov 13 ½ cents lower ($9.05 ¾)

August Soybean Meal closed $2.8 lower ($308.4), Sept $2.8 lower ($309.7) & Dec $3.1 lower ($314.4)

August Soybean Oil closed 37 pts lower ($27.73), Sept 35 pts lower ($27.85) & Dec 39 pts lower ($28.17)

Weekly Soybean Export Inspections – 559.4 K T. vs. 450-750 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Crop Condition & Progress – 54% GE vs. 54% expected vs. 70% year ago – Blooming – 40% vs. 66% 5-year average – Setting Pods – 7% vs. 28% 5-year average

On Friday and over the weekend the chatter was Chinese “privates” were interested in buying US Ag as long as tariffs were waived; Chinese “privates” are different from the Chinese government owned entities. This chatter allowed the complex to open marginally higher Sunday night but it was downhill after that due to the lack of a sales’ announcement this morning. Weekly export inspections ran mid-range of expectations. We need more than “mid-range of expectations” if we are to make a market here.  Now that last week’s big heat has come and gone ensuing forecasts have a bearish look to them as far as crop development is concerned. Soybean crop conditions are expected to be stable with last week’s readings. If the soybean market is going to support we need to see some sort of Chinese business announced. Soybean traders are faced with the same dilemma corn traders have; lost acres vs. lost demand.

Soybean spreads ran pretty steady out to January. Beyond January spreads were leaking. The interior soybean basis sees the Ohio River leaking; steady with Friday’s postings elsewhere. The Gulf edges higher on slow movement as holders of cash soybeans holding out for some sort of Chinese sales’ announcements.  The majority of the soybean crop is going to be late this year so it may be some time before we see a big influx of cash sales especially if the soybean market continues with its southerly route.

Given the rally we saw Thursday and Friday of last week Nov beans have new minor support from $9.00 to $8.95. Dec meal still has its “make it or break it” support at the $309.0 level. For the time being the bean oil market has turned into a big nothing/sideways market. The Monday night, Tuesday trade will takes it cue from the crop condition report and/or we see any Chinese business announced.

Daily Support & Resistance for 07/23

Aug Soybeans: $8.83 – $8.98

Nov Soybeans: $9.00 – $9.15

Dec Soybean Meal: $311.0 – $318.0

Dec Soybean Oil: $27.90 – $28.60

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.