Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

Sept Corn closed 3 ¼ cents higher ($4.25 ½), Dec 4 ¾ cents higher ($4.31 ½) & March 4 ¾ cents higher ($4.40 ½)

August Chgo Ethanol closed $0.035 cents a gallon lower ($1.500) & Sept $0.030 cents lower ($1.516)

Supportive price action was seen on Tuesday. Prices traded 4 cents higher Monday night stemming from the slight downturn in crop conditions. Tuesday morning saw selling reappear taking prices down to new lows for the current break; down as much 2 ¾ cents. At the new low, $4.24, the selling dried up and prices spent the balance of the day recovering back to the plus side for the day; making new daily highs in the process. For what it is worth I’m hearing western Illinois early planted corn is suggesting decent looking yields.

It looks like we are seeing some cash corn selling. The Sept/Dec spread started the day with a 4 ½ cent carry and finished the day at a 6 cent carry. The “however’ here is that the Dec forward spreads had a definite bullish bias. Basis levels along the Illinois River are sliding as are the Ohio River bids. Cedar Rapids is paying a 1 cent better vs. Monday. Elsewhere interior basis levels are unchanged. The Gulf midday is steady with Monday’s posting.

Today’s price action is suggesting funds may have sold enough for the time being. Coming into today funds have sold 92 K contracts since July 12th. This makes me think the $4.20 will remain a viable support level until more is known as to acreage and yield. $4.40 will continue to be a resistance level for the near term. Closes over $4.40 will call for a re-evaluation.

Daily Support & Resistance for 07/24

Sept Corn: $4.20 – $4.32  

Dec Corn: $4.26 – $4.38

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.