Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

Sept Chgo Wheat closed 10 ½ cents higher ($4.97 ¾), Dec 8 ½ cents higher ($5.06 ¾) & March 7 ¾ cents higher ($5.18 ½)

Sept KC Wheat closed 8 cents higher ($4.39 ½), Dec 6 ½ cents higher ($4.55 ¾) & March 5 ¾ cents higher ($4.73)

Sept Mpls Wheat closed 1 ¾ cents higher ($5.22 ¼), Dec 1 cent higher ($5.36) & March ¼ cent higher ($5.50 ¼)

SovEcon suggests Russian wheat crop 73.7 M T. vs. previous estimate of 76.6 M T. (USDA 74.2 M T.)

Weekly Wheat Export Sales – old crop vs. 200-450 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected

The size of the Russian wheat crop continues to ratchet lower. I’m told a good portion of the Western European grain areas are scheduled for record heat. Its impact on their winter crops would be minimal but have definite impact on their spring grains. These two stories allowed for Chgo and KC wheat to move higher. Not much happens with the Mpls market as the latest from the Wheat Quality Council tour are “variable” findings. They are saying the earlier planted wheat is good shape while the later planted wheat not so good.

Not much happens with the interior wheat basis for standard protein. I am told the higher protein wheat basis is catching a bid. Spreads in both Chgo and KC are reacting to this as well as the upfront fund buying. The Gulf basis for both varieties remains quiet.

KC wheat has now negated the suggested sell signal it posted the other day. Chgo wheat is challenging its sell signal territory that was registered last week. Daily momentum indicators are trying to turn higher from modestly low levels. The other day I mentioned I would stand aside from this market until I found something I could lean against as I did not want to get caught chasing extremes. If Sept Chgo wheat is to be any good $4.90 should be support while $4.32 or so should be new support for Sept KC. The risk on these potential purchases would be the recent lows.

Daily Support & Resistance for 07/25

Sept Chgo Wheat: $4.90 – $5.05 ($5.12)

Sept KC Wheat: $4.32 – $4.46 ($4.52)

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.