Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

Sept Corn closed 11 cents higher ($4.05 ¼), Dec 5 ¼ cents higher ($4.14 ¾) & March 5 cents higher ($4.25 ½)

August Chgo Ethanol closed $0.019 cents a gallon lower ($1.449) & Sept $0.027 cents lower ($1.455)

Weekly Corn Export Inspections – 631.2 K T. vs. 600-750 K T. expected

Weekly Corn Crop Condition & Progress – 57% GE (-1%) vs. 57% expected vs. 71% year ago – Silking – 78% vs. 93% 5-year average – Dough Stage – 23% vs. 42% 5-year average

It looks like much of the Ag sector ran out of sellers at least for the time being. The news coming in regarding China talked about them not buying any more US Ag in retaliation to the recent round of tariffs announced by the WH late last week. I have to think some of this was offset by ideas of not only declining crop conditions (ongoing dryness for the central and eastern Corn Belt) but also noticeably lower acreage ideas that are starting to come out ahead of next Monday’s USDA production update. Make note that not all acreage estimates are looking for great reductions. Here’s an example; Informa suggests harvested corn acres will only be 1.0 million less while Farm Futures is suggesting harvested corn acres will be down 7.5 million. Why such a discrepancy exists beats me; aerial survey vs. no aerial survey??? The bottom line is that the bleeding has stopped for now.

Other than Savanna, IL getting back in the market most interior corn basis locations are seeing few if any changes. Cedar Rapids is bidding 1 cent better while Davenport may be deferring to Savanna as they are 6 cents weaker. The Gulf continues with its downward slide that began about two weeks ago. Bull spreads are trying to re-assert themselves. The anticipated declines in crop conditions/acres may be reigniting the question as to what may or not be available to end-users come September.

Today’s outside day with the close above previous day’s high suggests the worst is over at least for now. As far as I’m concerned the debate continues; a short crop vs. short demand. It has always been my idea that short demand despite a short crop makes that short crop a bit bigger. Today’s interim reversal suggests we may be locked into a mini-trading range affair between now and next Monday; $4.00 on the downside and $4.25 on the upside.

Daily Support & Resistance for 08/06

Sept Corn: $3.99 – $4.11    

Dec Corn: $4.08 – $4.20

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.