Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

August Soybeans closed unchanged ($8.50 ¼), Sept ¼ cent higher ($8.56) & Nov ¼ cent higher ($8.68 ¾)

August Soybean Meal closed $2.5 higher ($294.9), Sept $2.5 higher ($297.0) & Dec $2.9 higher ($302.3)

August Soybean Oil closed 43 pts lower ($27.76), Sept 45 pts lower ($27.87) & Dec 45 pts lower ($28.26)

Weekly Soybean Export Inspections – 1.029 M T. vs. 600 K – 1.100 M T. expected

Weekly Soybean Crop Condition & Progress – 54% GE (unch) vs. 53% expected vs. 67% year ago – Blooming – 72% vs. 87% 5-year average – Setting Pods – 37% vs. 63% 5-year average

After a firm start to Sunday night November futures fell 20 cents filling the Memorial Day weekend gap in the early part of the day session. Short covering ensued fueled by a lack of follow through selling only to test the early Sunday night high, a rebound of 20 cents. The meal market joined in with the short covering leaving bean oil as the weak sister of the day (bearish looking crude oil price action). The break was all about China retaliating against the recently threatened new round of tariffs scheduled for Sept 1st. The rebound I have to think was mostly technical in nature (oversold) while an anticipated down turn in crop conditions limited overhead selling. Strong looking weekly export inspections provided support for the initial rebound. I find it interesting that China was arguing that have been buying US Ag commodities since July 19th; they quoted 130.0 K T. of soybean bought. I’m sorry but 130.0 K T. of soybeans is nothing. In summation it looks like we’ve set our interim lows at least until we see what the USDA has to say on the 12th.

With the exception of Savanna, IL getting back in the mix most other interior soybean locations are reporting steady to lower basis levels. The Gulf continues with its slide that started 1 ½ weeks ago. Soybean spreads were mostly steady to January. The January spreads forward saw ½ cent improvements (meaning Jan was unchanged and March forward down a ½ cent). Not much happens with the offers to sell cash soybean meal. Spreads here ran steady to fractionally easier.

Today’s outside day with the fractional higher closes suggests consolidation for the near term. Bouncing out of the Memorial Day weekend gap after filling confirms we may have gone low enough for now. The lack of business going forward will limit rally potential; stability, however, can be viewed as a near term plus.

Daily Support & Resistance for 08/06

Nov Soybeans: $8.60 – $8.80

Dec Soybean Meal: $298.0 – $305.5

Dec Soybean Oil: $27.90 – $28.70

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.