Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

Sept Corn closed 4 ½ cents higher ($4.11), Dec 4 ¼ cents higher ($4.18 ¼) & March 4 ¾ cents higher ($4.28 ½)

Sept Chgo Ethanol closed $0.020 cents a gallon higher ($1.439) & Oct $0.020 cents higher ($1.444)

Weekly Corn Export Sales – 42.6 K T. old crop vs. 100-300 K T. expected – 197.0 K T. new crop vs. 200-600 K T. expected

Concerns around the ongoing dryness in the central areas of the Corn Belt coupled with the idea the USDA is going to give us a bullish looking corn report next Monday has futures flirting with suspected resistance levels. Weekly export sales are best described as puny. The latest forecasts are suggesting some decent rain events to begin later this weekend and into next week. Many say this rain will be critical as it appears a good portion of the Corn Belt will turn warm and dry for last half August.

The Ohio River jumps 13 cents with its basis. The Mid-Miss locations continue to be erratic with their day to day basis changes. Basis elsewhere runs unchanged. Spreads ran mixed on the day as Sept gains fractionally on the Dec while the Dec loses to March and May.

Here we have Dec corn upflagging into overhead resistance. Normally I would say to have your selling shoes if we see further resistance probing. The “but” here is that we have one of the biggest grain reports of the season coming at us on Monday. Additionally; since the crop is so late with its maturity we are still subject to weather whims. If you’re a pure technician you will be looking at $4.25 to $4.35 for selling points. If you’re trying to respect the USDA report on Monday you’re probably not doing anything.

Daily Support & Resistance for 08/09

Sept Corn: $4.05 – $4.15 ($4.20)  

Dec Corn: $4.12 – $4.22 ($4.26)

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.